Preseason Rankings
Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.3#329
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#184
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#77
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.6% 22.4% 13.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.3% 3.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 12.2 12.0 13.0
.500 or above 75.6% 82.5% 59.7%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 81.6% 67.6%
Conference Champion 23.7% 27.0% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.5% 5.9%
First Four1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round19.0% 21.5% 13.1%
Second Round4.2% 5.2% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 37 - 59 - 10
Quad 49 - 217 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 139   Old Dominion W 62-57 69%    
  Nov 09, 2019 147   @ Northern Illinois L 65-66 48%    
  Nov 13, 2019 197   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-59 79%    
  Nov 16, 2019 214   Northern Colorado W 69-59 80%    
  Nov 19, 2019 258   Tennessee Martin W 76-64 86%    
  Nov 26, 2019 46   West Virginia L 66-73 28%    
  Dec 10, 2019 40   @ Colorado L 61-71 18%    
  Dec 12, 2019 137   @ Grand Canyon L 66-67 47%    
  Dec 22, 2019 188   Marshall W 79-70 77%    
  Dec 31, 2019 187   @ Illinois St. W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 04, 2020 136   Bradley W 65-60 66%    
  Jan 07, 2020 158   Indiana St. W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 11, 2020 125   @ Missouri St. L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 15, 2020 199   Valparaiso W 66-57 77%    
  Jan 18, 2020 136   @ Bradley L 62-63 46%    
  Jan 22, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois W 64-61 61%    
  Jan 26, 2020 109   Loyola Chicago W 61-58 59%    
  Jan 29, 2020 125   Missouri St. W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 01, 2020 182   @ Evansville W 67-65 58%    
  Feb 05, 2020 199   @ Valparaiso W 63-60 59%    
  Feb 08, 2020 145   Drake W 71-65 68%    
  Feb 12, 2020 187   Illinois St. W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 15, 2020 109   @ Loyola Chicago L 58-61 39%    
  Feb 20, 2020 158   @ Indiana St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 23, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 67-58 78%    
  Feb 26, 2020 182   Evansville W 70-62 75%    
  Feb 29, 2020 145   @ Drake L 67-68 48%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.7 5.9 4.2 2.3 0.7 23.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.0 5.2 5.6 3.2 1.0 0.1 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.4 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.3 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 4.3 5.5 7.6 9.5 10.7 11.4 11.5 10.8 9.1 6.8 4.4 2.3 0.7 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3 0.1
16-2 96.8% 4.2    3.8 0.4
15-3 85.4% 5.9    4.6 1.2 0.1
14-4 62.4% 5.7    3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 33.3% 3.6    1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0
12-6 9.9% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.7% 23.7 16.5 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 89.1% 69.0% 20.1% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 64.7%
17-1 2.3% 73.3% 54.3% 19.0% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 41.6%
16-2 4.4% 60.0% 48.2% 11.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 22.8%
15-3 6.8% 46.5% 39.6% 6.9% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.7 11.4%
14-4 9.1% 31.5% 29.0% 2.5% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.2 3.6%
13-5 10.8% 24.0% 23.3% 0.7% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 8.2 0.9%
12-6 11.5% 18.7% 18.5% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.4 0.2%
11-7 11.4% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 9.9 0.0%
10-8 10.7% 9.4% 9.4% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.7
9-9 9.5% 8.3% 8.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.7
8-10 7.6% 3.3% 3.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.4
7-11 5.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.3
6-12 4.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-13 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.6% 17.7% 1.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 2.1 5.7 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.4 80.4 2.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.7 0.8 35.9 15.6 14.1 22.7 10.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 96.8% 5.3 3.2 48.4 45.2